If you’re locked down right now, you’re probably spending quite a lot of your time imagining how much better 2022 will be.

NSW and Victoria both have roadmaps out of lockdown that project a significant re-opening once 80{45645b7867f5ff48252b5428f5d1f7763616806f34527d6e51ce3a43c844d4cd} of the population older than 16 is fully vaccinated later this year.

The national COVID plan sets out something similar for other parts of the country too.

The reality though is that next year is far from certain.

The rise and fall of case numbers, the death rate, and time spent in lockdown really depend on what we do next.

Today on The Signal, we’re looking at three different models for how 2022 could look in Australia, and what it’ll take to pull off the best case scenario.

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Professor Tony Blakely, Epidemiologist, School of Population and Global Health, University of Melbourne



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By EDONS